Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: Lessons from the US COVID-19 scenario modeling hub.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Here, we present projections of COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths in the United States for the next 2 years under 2 plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and 3 possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65 years and over, vaccination for all eligible age groups based on FDA approval). METHODS AND FINDINGS: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023 and April 15, 2025 under 6 scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. Annually reformulated vaccines are assumed to be 65% effective against symptomatic infection with strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age- and state-specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. State and national projections from 8 modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario and expected reductions in disease outcomes due to vaccination over the projection period. From April 15, 2023 to April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November to January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% projection interval (PI) [1,438,000, 4,270,000]) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI [139,000, 461,000]) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) [104,000, 355,000]) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI [12,000, 54,000]) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI [29,000, 69,000]) fewer deaths. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming 2 years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease, saving tens of thousands of lives each year.

Projecting the future impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants under uncertainty: Modeling the initial Omicron outbreak.

Over the past several years, the emergence of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants has led to multiple waves of increased COVID-19 incidence. When the Omicron variant emerged, there was considerable concern about its potential impact in the winter of 2021-2022 due to its increased fitness. However, there was also considerable uncertainty regarding its likely impact due to questions about its relative transmissibility, severity, and degree of immune escape. We sought to evaluate the ability of an agent-based model to forecast incidence in the context of this emerging pathogen variant. To project COVID-19 cases and deaths in Indiana, we calibrated our model to COVID-19 hospitalizations, deaths, and test-positivity rates through November 2021, and then projected COVID-19 incidence through April 2022 under four different scenarios that covered the plausible ranges of Omicron's severity, transmissibility, and degree of immune escape. Our initial projections from December 2021 through March 2022 indicated that under a pessimistic scenario with high disease severity, the peak in weekly COVID-19 deaths in Indiana would be larger than the previous peak in December 2020. However, retrospective analyses indicate that Omicron's severity was closer to the optimistic scenario, and even though cases and hospitalizations reached a new peak, fewer deaths occurred than during the previous peak. According to our results, Omicron's rapid spread was consistent with a combination of higher transmissibility and immune escape relative to earlier variants. Our updated projections starting in January 2022 accurately predicted that cases would peak in mid-January and decline rapidly over the next several months. The performance of our projections shows that following the emergence of a new pathogen variant, models can help quantify the potential range of outbreak magnitudes and trajectories. Agent-based models are particularly useful in these scenarios because they can efficiently track individual vaccination and infection histories with multiple variants with varying degrees of cross-protection.

Estimating the health effects of COVID-19-related immunisation disruptions in 112 countries during 2020-30: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: There have been declines in global immunisation coverage due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery has begun but is geographically variable. This disruption has led to under-immunised cohorts and interrupted progress in reducing vaccine-preventable disease burden. There have, so far, been few studies of the effects of coverage disruption on vaccine effects. We aimed to quantify the effects of vaccine-coverage disruption on routine and campaign immunisation services, identify cohorts and regions that could particularly benefit from catch-up activities, and establish if losses in effect could be recovered. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used modelling groups from the Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium from 112 low-income and middle-income countries to estimate vaccine effect for 14 pathogens. One set of modelling estimates used vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2021 for a subset of vaccine-preventable, outbreak-prone or priority diseases (ie, measles, rubella, hepatitis B, human papillomavirus [HPV], meningitis A, and yellow fever) to examine mitigation measures, hereafter referred to as recovery runs. The second set of estimates were conducted with vaccine-coverage data from 1937 to 2020, used to calculate effect ratios (ie, the burden averted per dose) for all 14 included vaccines and diseases, hereafter referred to as full runs. Both runs were modelled from Jan 1, 2000, to Dec 31, 2100. Countries were included if they were in the Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance portfolio; had notable burden; or had notable strategic vaccination activities. These countries represented the majority of global vaccine-preventable disease burden. Vaccine coverage was informed by historical estimates from WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage and the immunisation repository of WHO for data up to and including 2021. From 2022 onwards, we estimated coverage on the basis of guidance about campaign frequency, non-linear assumptions about the recovery of routine immunisation to pre-disruption magnitude, and 2030 endpoints informed by the WHO Immunization Agenda 2030 aims and expert consultation. We examined three main scenarios: no disruption, baseline recovery, and baseline recovery and catch-up. FINDINGS: We estimated that disruption to measles, rubella, HPV, hepatitis B, meningitis A, and yellow fever vaccination could lead to 49 119 additional deaths (95% credible interval [CrI] 17 248-134 941) during calendar years 2020-30, largely due to measles. For years of vaccination 2020-30 for all 14 pathogens, disruption could lead to a 2·66% (95% CrI 2·52-2·81) reduction in long-term effect from 37 378 194 deaths averted (34 450 249-40 241 202) to 36 410 559 deaths averted (33 515 397-39 241 799). We estimated that catch-up activities could avert 78·9% (40·4-151·4) of excess deaths between calendar years 2023 and 2030 (ie, 18 900 [7037-60 223] of 25 356 [9859-75 073]). INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight the importance of the timing of catch-up activities, considering estimated burden to improve vaccine coverage in affected cohorts. We estimated that mitigation measures for measles and yellow fever were particularly effective at reducing excess burden in the short term. Additionally, the high long-term effect of HPV vaccine as an important cervical-cancer prevention tool warrants continued immunisation efforts after disruption. FUNDING: The Vaccine Impact Modelling Consortium, funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Arabic, Chinese, French, Portguese and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Potential impact of annual vaccination with reformulated COVID-19 vaccines: lessons from the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

Importance: COVID-19 continues to cause significant hospitalizations and deaths in the United States. Its continued burden and the impact of annually reformulated vaccines remain unclear. Objective: To project COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths from April 2023-April 2025 under two plausible assumptions about immune escape (20% per year and 50% per year) and three possible CDC recommendations for the use of annually reformulated vaccines (no vaccine recommendation, vaccination for those aged 65+, vaccination for all eligible groups). Design: The COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub solicited projections of COVID-19 hospitalization and deaths between April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025 under six scenarios representing the intersection of considered levels of immune escape and vaccination. State and national projections from eight modeling teams were ensembled to produce projections for each scenario. Setting: The entire United States. Participants: None. Exposure: Annually reformulated vaccines assumed to be 65% effective against strains circulating on June 15 of each year and to become available on September 1. Age and state specific coverage in recommended groups was assumed to match that seen for the first (fall 2021) COVID-19 booster. Main outcomes and measures: Ensemble estimates of weekly and cumulative COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths. Expected relative and absolute reductions in hospitalizations and deaths due to vaccination over the projection period. Results: From April 15, 2023-April 15, 2025, COVID-19 is projected to cause annual epidemics peaking November-January. In the most pessimistic scenario (high immune escape, no vaccination recommendation), we project 2.1 million (90% PI: 1,438,000-4,270,000) hospitalizations and 209,000 (90% PI: 139,000-461,000) deaths, exceeding pre-pandemic mortality of influenza and pneumonia. In high immune escape scenarios, vaccination of those aged 65+ results in 230,000 (95% CI: 104,000-355,000) fewer hospitalizations and 33,000 (95% CI: 12,000-54,000) fewer deaths, while vaccination of all eligible individuals results in 431,000 (95% CI: 264,000-598,000) fewer hospitalizations and 49,000 (95% CI: 29,000-69,000) fewer deaths. Conclusion and Relevance: COVID-19 is projected to be a significant public health threat over the coming two years. Broad vaccination has the potential to substantially reduce the burden of this disease.

Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty.

Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make months ahead projections of SARS-CoV-2 burden, totaling nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections. Here, we find SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. We show scenarios remained close to reality for 22 weeks on average before the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants invalidated key assumptions. An ensemble of participating models that preserved variation between models (using the linear opinion pool method) was consistently more reliable than any single model in periods of valid scenario assumptions, while projection interval coverage was near target levels. SMH projections were used to guide pandemic response, illustrating the value of collaborative hubs for longer-term scenario projections.

Naturally Occurring Yeasts Associated with Thaumatotibia leucotreta Can Enhance the Efficacy of the Cryptophlebia Leucotreta Granulovirus.

Yeasts associated with lepidopteran pests have been shown to play a role in their survival, development, and oviposition preference. It has been demonstrated that combining these yeasts with existing biological control agents can enhance their efficacy. The tortricid Thaumatotibia leucotreta is a phytosanitary pest in the South African citrus industry, with the baculovirus Cryptophlebia leucotreta granulovirus (CrleGV) being one of the components that can control this pest. Several yeast species were shown to be associated with T. leucotreta larvae, which affected their behaviour and development. A series of detached fruit bioassays were performed to determine whether the combination of yeast with CrleGV enhances its efficacy. These assays included determining the optimal yeast/virus ratio, testing all isolated yeast species in combination with CrleGV, and further improving yeast/virus formulation by adding an adjuvant. The optimal yeast concentration to use alongside CrleGV was determined to be 106 cells·mL-1. Pichia kluyveri, P. kudriavzevii, Kluyveromyces marxianus, and Saccharomyces cerevisiae in combination with CrleGV reduced larval survival compared to CrleGV alone. The addition of molasses and BREAK-THRU® S 240 to P. kudriavzevii and S. cerevisiae in combination with CrleGV did not notably improve their effectiveness; however, there was an observed decrease in larval survival. In future studies, field trials will be conducted with combinations of CrleGV and P. kudriavzevii or S. cerevisiae to investigate whether these laboratory findings can be replicated in orchard conditions.

Does ignoring transmission dynamics lead to underestimation of the impact of interventions against mosquito-borne disease?

New vector-control technologies to fight mosquito-borne diseases are urgently needed, the adoption of which depends on efficacy estimates from large-scale cluster-randomised trials (CRTs). The release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes is one promising strategy to curb dengue virus (DENV) transmission, and a recent CRT reported impressive reductions in dengue incidence following the release of these mosquitoes. Such trials can be affected by multiple sources of bias, however. We used mathematical models of DENV transmission during a CRT of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes to explore three such biases: human movement, mosquito movement and coupled transmission dynamics between trial arms. We show that failure to account for each of these biases would lead to underestimated efficacy, and that the majority of this underestimation is due to a heretofore unrecognised bias caused by transmission coupling. Taken together, our findings suggest that Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes could be even more promising than the recent CRT suggested. By emphasising the importance of accounting for transmission coupling between arms, which requires a mathematical model, we highlight the key role that models can play in interpreting and extrapolating the results from trials of vector control interventions.

Impact of diarrhoea and acute respiratory infection on environmental enteric dysfunction and growth of malnourished children in Pakistan: a longitudinal cohort study.

Background: Diarrhoea and acute respiratory infections (ARI) are assumed to be major drivers of growth and likely contribute to environmental enteric dysfunction (EED), which is a precursor to childhood malnutrition. In the present study, we checked the correlation between diarrhoeal/ARI burden and EED using a novel duodenal histological index. Methods: Between November 2017 and July 2019, a total of 365 infants with weight-for-height Z scores (WHZ score) of <-2 were enrolled, and 51 infants with WHZ scores of >0 and height-for-age Z scores (HAZ scores) of >-1 were selected as age-matched healthy controls. Morbidity was assessed weekly and categorised as the total number of days with diarrhoea and acute respiratory infection (ARI) from enrolment until two years of age and was further divided into four quartiles in ascending order. Findings: The HAZ declined until two years of age regardless of morbidity burden, and WHZ and weight-for-age Z scores (WAZ scores) were at their lowest at six months. Sixty-three subjects who had a WHZ score <-2 and failed to respond to nutritional and educational interventions were further selected at 15 months to investigate their EED histological scores with endoscopy further. EED histological scores of the subjects were higher with increasing diarrhoeal frequency yet remained statistically insignificant (p = 0.810). Interpretation: There was not a clear correlation between diarrhoea and ARI frequency with growth faltering, however, children with the highest frequency of diarrhoea had the highest EED histological scores and growth faltering. Funding: Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and The National Institutes of Health.

Informing pandemic response in the face of uncertainty. An evaluation of the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub.

Our ability to forecast epidemics more than a few weeks into the future is constrained by the complexity of disease systems, our limited ability to measure the current state of an epidemic, and uncertainties in how human action will affect transmission. Realistic longer-term projections (spanning more than a few weeks) may, however, be possible under defined scenarios that specify the future state of critical epidemic drivers, with the additional benefit that such scenarios can be used to anticipate the comparative effect of control measures. Since December 2020, the U.S. COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub (SMH) has convened multiple modeling teams to make 6-month ahead projections of the number of SARS-CoV-2 cases, hospitalizations and deaths. The SMH released nearly 1.8 million national and state-level projections between February 2021 and November 2022. SMH performance varied widely as a function of both scenario validity and model calibration. Scenario assumptions were periodically invalidated by the arrival of unanticipated SARS-CoV-2 variants, but SMH still provided projections on average 22 weeks before changes in assumptions (such as virus transmissibility) invalidated scenarios and their corresponding projections. During these periods, before emergence of a novel variant, a linear opinion pool ensemble of contributed models was consistently more reliable than any single model, and projection interval coverage was near target levels for the most plausible scenarios (e.g., 79% coverage for 95% projection interval). SMH projections were used operationally to guide planning and policy at different stages of the pandemic, illustrating the value of the hub approach for long-term scenario projections.

The History of Baculovirology in Africa.

Baculovirology has been studied on the African continent for the development of insect virus-based biopesticides and, to a much lesser extent, vaccine production and delivery, since the 1960s. In this review, we focus only on baculoviruses as biopesticides for agricultural pests in Africa. At least 11 species of baculovirus have been discovered or studied on the African continent, some with several distinct isolates, with the objective in most cases being the development of a biopesticide. These include the nucleopolyhedroviruses of Helicoverpa armigera, Cryptophlebia peltastica, Spodoptera exempta, Spodoptera frugiperda, Spodoptera littoralis, and Maruca vitrata, as well as the granuloviruses of Cydia pomonella, Plutella xylostella, Thaumatotibia (Cryptophlebia) leucotreta, Choristoneura occidentalis, and Phthorimaea operculella. Eleven different baculovirus-based biopesticides are recorded as being registered and commercially available on the African continent. Baculoviruses are recorded to have been isolated, researched, utilised in field trials, and/or commercially deployed as biopesticides in at least 13 different African countries. Baculovirus research is ongoing in Africa, and researchers are confident that further novel species and isolates will be discovered, to the benefit of environmentally responsible agricultural pest management, not only in Africa but also elsewhere.

Standard RUTF vs. locally-made RUSF for acutely malnourished children: A quasi-experimental comparison of the impact on growth and compliance in a rural community of Pakistan.

BACKGROUND: The reduction in severe and moderate acute malnutrition (SAM and MAM) rates in Pakistan has been sub-optimal compared to other low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Specially-formulated products have been designed globally to manage SAM and MAM, such as ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF) and ready-to-use supplementary food (RUSF), with variable efficacies. RUTF is primarily produced and patented in industrialized countries, raising supply challenges in resource-constrained regions with a high burden of acute malnutrition. RUSF minimizes costs by using locally-available ingredients while providing similar nutritional value. In this study, we compared the efficacy, side effects, and compliance of two months of supplementation with either RUTF or RUSF. METHODS: Children aged nine months in the rural district of Matiari, Pakistan, with a weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) <-2 received either RUTF (500 kcal sachet) for two months in 2015 or RUSF (520 kcal sachet) for two months in 2018. RESULTS: The RUSF group had a higher height gain and mid-upper arm circumferences (MUAC) score. Higher compliance was noted with lower side effects in the RUSF group. A higher compliance rate did correlate with the growth parameters in respective groups. CONCLUSION: Our study found that both RUTF and RUSF partially improve the anthropometric status of acutely malnourished children, with neither being superior to the other.

Community incidence patterns drive the risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and alter intervention impacts in a high-risk institutional setting.

Optimization of control measures for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in high-risk institutional settings (e.g., prisons, nursing homes, or military bases) depends on how transmission dynamics in the broader community influence outbreak risk locally. We calibrated an individual-based transmission model of a military training camp to the number of RT-PCR positive trainees throughout 2020 and 2021. The predicted number of infected new arrivals closely followed adjusted national incidence and increased early outbreak risk after accounting for vaccination coverage, masking compliance, and virus variants. Outbreak size was strongly correlated with the predicted number of off-base infections among staff during training camp. In addition, off-base infections reduced the impact of arrival screening and masking, while the number of infectious trainees upon arrival reduced the impact of vaccination and staff testing. Our results highlight the importance of outside incidence patterns for modulating risk and the optimal mixture of control measures in institutional settings.

Mucosal transcriptomics highlight lncRNAs implicated in ulcerative colitis, Crohn's disease, and celiac disease.

Ulcerative colitis (UC), Crohn's disease (CD), and celiac disease are prevalent intestinal inflammatory disorders with nonsatisfactory therapeutic interventions. Analyzing patient data-driven cohorts can highlight disease pathways and new targets for interventions. Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are attractive candidates, since they are readily targetable by RNA therapeutics, show relative cell-specific expression, and play key cellular functions. Uniformly analyzing gut mucosal transcriptomics from 696 subjects, we have highlighted lncRNA expression along the gastrointestinal (GI) tract, demonstrating that, in control samples, lncRNAs have a more location-specific expression in comparison with protein-coding genes. We defined dysregulation of lncRNAs in treatment-naive UC, CD, and celiac diseases using independent test and validation cohorts. Using the Predicting Response to Standardized Pediatric Colitis Therapy (PROTECT) inception UC cohort, we defined and prioritized lncRNA linked with UC severity and prospective outcomes, and we highlighted lncRNAs linked with gut microbes previously implicated in mucosal homeostasis. HNF1A-AS1 lncRNA was reduced in all 3 conditions and was further reduced in more severe UC form. Similarly, the reduction of HNF1A-AS1 ortholog in mice gut epithelia showed higher sensitivity to dextran sodium sulfate-induced colitis, which was coupled with alteration in the gut microbial community. These analyses highlight prioritized dysregulated lncRNAs that can guide future preclinical studies for testing them as potential targets.

Variable Region Sequences Influence 16S rRNA Performance.

16S rRNA gene sequences are commonly analyzed for taxonomic and phylogenetic studies because they contain variable regions that can help distinguish different genera. However, intra-genus distinction using variable region homology is often impossible due to the high overall sequence identities among closely related species, even though some residues may be conserved within respective species. Using a computational method that included the allelic diversity within individual genomes, we discovered that certain Escherichia and Shigella species can be distinguished by a multi-allelic 16S rRNA variable region single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP). To evaluate the performance of 16S rRNAs with altered variable regions, we developed an in vivo system that measures the acceptance and distribution of variant 16S rRNAs into a large pool of natural versions supporting normal translation and growth. We found that 16S rRNAs containing evolutionarily disparate variable regions were underpopulated both in ribosomes and in active translation pools, even for an SNP. Overall, this study revealed that variable region sequences can substantially influence the performance of 16S rRNAs and that this biological constraint can be leveraged to justify refining taxonomic assignments of variable region sequence data. IMPORTANCE This study reevaluates the notion that 16S rRNA gene variable region sequences are uninformative for intra-genus classification and that single nucleotide variations within them have no consequence to strains that bear them. We demonstrated that the performance of 16S rRNAs in Escherichia coli can be negatively impacted by sequence changes in variable regions, even for single nucleotide changes that are native to closely related Escherichia and Shigella species; thus, biological performance is likely constraining the evolution of variable regions in bacteria. Further, the native nucleotide variations we tested occur in all strains of their respective species and across their multiple 16S rRNA gene copies, suggesting that these species evolved beyond what would be discerned from a consensus sequence comparison. Therefore, this work also reveals that the multiple 16S rRNA gene alleles found in most bacteria can provide more informative phylogenetic and taxonomic detail than a single reference allele.

Staffing rural emergency departments in Ontario: The who, what and where.

Introduction: The emergency department (ED) in rural communities is essential for providing care to patients with urgent medical issues and those unable to access primary care. Recent physician staffing shortages have put many EDs at risk of temporary closure. Our goal was to describe the demographics and practices of the rural physicians providing emergency medicine services across Ontario in order to inform health human resource planning. Methods: The ICES Physician database (IPDB) and Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP) billing database from 2017 were used in this retrospective cohort study. Rural physician data were analysed for demographic, practice region and certification information. Sentinel billing codes (i.e., a billing code unique to a particular clinical service) were used to define 18 unique physician services. Results: A total of 1192 physicians from the IPDB met inclusion as rural generalist physicians out of a total of 14,443 family physicians in Ontario. From this physician population, a total of 620 physicians practised emergency medicine which accounted for 33% of their days worked on average. The majority of physicians practising emergency medicine were between the ages of 30 and 49 and in their first decade of practice. The most common services in addition to emergency medicine were clinic, hospital medicine, palliative care and mental health. Conclusion: This study provides insight into the practice patterns of rural physicians and the basis for better targeted physician workforce-forecasting models. A new approach to education and training pathways, recruitment and retention initiatives and rural health service delivery models is needed to ensure better health outcomes for our rural population.

Résumé Introduction: Le service d'urgence des communautés rurales est essentiel pour la prise en charge des patients présentant des problèmes médicaux urgents et de ceux qui ne peuvent accéder aux soins primaires. En raison de la récente pénurie de médecins, de nombreux services d'urgence risquent de fermer temporairement. Notre objectif était de décrire les caractéristiques démographiques et les pratiques des médecins ruraux qui fournissent des services de médecine d'urgence en Ontario afin d'éclairer la planification des ressources humaines en santé. Méthodes: La base de données des médecins de l'ICES (IPDB) et la base de données de facturation de l'assurance-santé de l'Ontario (OHIP) de 2017 ont été utilisées dans cette étude de cohorte rétrospective. Les données sur les médecins ruraux ont été analysées pour obtenir des renseignements sur la démographie, la région de pratique et la certification. Les codes de facturation sentinelle (c'est-à-dire un code de facturation unique pour un service clinique particulier) ont été utilisés pour définir 18 services médicaux uniques. Résultats: Sur un total de 14 443 médecins de famille en Ontario, 1 192 médecins de l'IPDB ont été inclus en tant que médecins généralistes ruraux. Parmi cette population de médecins, 620 pratiquaient la médecine d'urgence, ce qui représentait 33% de leurs jours de travail en moyenne. La majorité des médecins qui pratiquaient la médecine d'urgence étaient âgés de 30 à 49 ans et en étaient à leur première décennie de pratique. Les services les plus courants en plus de la médecine d'urgence étaient la clinique, la médecine hospitalière, les soins palliatifs et la santé mentale. Conclusion: Cette étude permet de mieux comprendre les modes de pratique des médecins ruraux et de jeter les bases de modèles de prévision des effectifs médicaux mieux ciblés. Une nouvelle approche des parcours d'éducation et de formation, des initiatives de recrutement et de rétention et des modèles de prestation de services de santé en milieu rural est nécessaire pour garantir de meilleurs résultats en matière de santé pour notre population rurale. Mots-clés: Médecine d'urgence, médecins ruraux, planification des ressources humaines en santé.

Essential Fatty Acid Deficiency Associates with Growth Faltering and Environmental Enteric Dysfunction in Children.

Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is characterized by intestinal inflammation, malabsorption and growth-faltering in children with heightened exposure to gut pathogens. The aim of this study was to characterize serum non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA), in association with childhood undernutrition and EED, as potential biomarkers to predict growth outcomes. The study comprised a cohort of undernourished rural Pakistani infants (n = 365) and age-matched controls followed prospectively up to 24 months of age. Serum NEFA were quantified at ages 3-6 and 9 months and correlated with growth outcomes, serum bile acids and EED histopathological biomarkers. Serum NEFA correlated with linear growth-faltering and systemic and gut biomarkers of EED. Undernourished children exhibited essential fatty acid deficiency (EFAD), with low levels of linoleic acid and total n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids, compensated by increased levels of oleic acid and increased elongase and desaturase activities. EFAD correlated with reduced anthropometric Z scores at 3-6 and 9 months of age. Serum NEFA also correlated with elevated BA and liver dysfunction. Essential fatty acid depletion and altered NEFA metabolism were highly prevalent and associated with acute and chronic growth-faltering in EED. The finding suggests that targeting early interventions to correct EFAD and promote FA absorption in children with EED may facilitate childhood growth in high-risk settings.

Transmission Electron Microscopy Observation of Morphological Changes to Cryptophlebia Leucotreta Granulovirus following Ultraviolet Irradiation.

Cryptophlebia leucotreta granulovirus (CrleGV), a double-stranded DNA virus (genus Betabaculovirus, family Baculoviridae), is highly infective to the citrus insect pest Thaumatotibia leucotreta. The South African isolate CrleGV-SA is formulated into a commercial biopesticide and registered for use in several countries. In South Africa, it is used as a biopesticide in a multi-faceted integrated pest management approach for citrus crops involving chemical and biological control methods. The virus nucleocapsid is surrounded and protected by an occlusion body (OB) composed of granulin protein in a crystalline matrix. Like all other baculoviruses, CrleGV is susceptible to ultraviolet (UV) radiation from sunlight. This reduces its efficacy as a biopesticide in the field and necessitates frequent respraying. UV damage to baculovirus biopesticides is detected by means of functional bioassays. However, bioassays do not give an indication of whether any structural damage has occurred that may contribute to functional loss. In this study, transmission electron microscopy (TEM) was used to observe damage to the OB and nucleocapsid (NC) of CrleGV-SA, following controlled UV irradiation in the laboratory to mimic field conditions. The resultant images were compared with images of non-irradiated CrleGV-SA virus. TEM images of irradiated CrleGV-SA samples revealed changes to the OB crystalline faceting, a reduction in the size of the OBs, and damage to the NC following UV exposure for 72 h.

Quantitative Morphometry and Machine Learning Model to Explore Duodenal and Rectal Mucosal Tissue of Children with Environmental Enteric Dysfunction.

Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is a subclinical enteropathy prevalent in resource-limited settings, hypothesized to be a consequence of chronic exposure to environmental enteropathogens, resulting in malnutrition, growth failure, neurocognitive delays, and oral vaccine failure. This study explored the duodenal and colonic tissues of children with EED, celiac disease, and other enteropathies using quantitative mucosal morphometry, histopathologic scoring indices, and machine learning-based image analysis from archival and prospective cohorts of children from Pakistan and the United States. We observed villus blunting as being more prominent in celiac disease than in EED, as shorter lengths of villi were observed in patients with celiac disease from Pakistan than in those from the United States, with median (interquartile range) lengths of 81 (73, 127) µm and 209 (188, 266) µm, respectively. Additionally, per the Marsh scoring method, celiac disease histologic severity was increased in the cohorts from Pakistan. Goblet cell depletion and increased intraepithelial lymphocytes were features of EED and celiac disease. Interestingly, the rectal tissue from cases with EED showed increased mononuclear inflammatory cells and intraepithelial lymphocytes in the crypts compared with controls. Increased neutrophils in the rectal crypt epithelium were also significantly associated with increased EED histologic severity scores in duodenal tissue. We observed an overlap between diseased and healthy duodenal tissue upon leveraging machine learning image analysis. We conclude that EED comprises a spectrum of inflammation in the duodenum, as previously described, and the rectal mucosa, warranting the examination of both anatomic regions in our efforts to understand and manage EED.

GATA6-AS1 Regulates Intestinal Epithelial Mitochondrial Functions, and its Reduced Expression is Linked to Intestinal Inflammation and Less Favourable Disease Course in Ulcerative Colitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Widespread dysregulation of long non-coding RNAs [lncRNAs] including a reduction in GATA6-AS1 was noted in inflammatory bowel disease [IBD]. We previously reported a prominent inhibition of epithelial mitochondrial functions in ulcerative colitis [UC]. However, the connection between reduction of GATA6-AS1 expression and attenuated epithelial mitochondrial functions was not defined. METHODS: Mucosal transcriptomics was used to conform GATA6-AS1 reduction in several treatment-naïve independent human cohorts [n=673]. RNA pull-down followed by mass spectrometry was used to determine the GATA6-AS1 interactome. Metabolomics and mitochondrial respiration following GATA6-AS1 silencing in Caco-2 cells were used to elaborate on GATA6-AS1 functions. RESULTS: GATA6-AS1 showed predominant expression in gut epithelia using single cell datasets. GATA6-AS1 levels were reduced in Crohn's disease [CD] ileum and UC rectum in independent cohorts. Reduced GATA6-AS1 lncRNA was further linked to a more severe UC form, and to a less favourable UC course. The GATA6-AS1 interactome showed robust enrichment for mitochondrial proteins, and included TGM2, an autoantigen in coeliac disease that is induced in UC, CD and coeliac disease, in contrast to GATA6-AS1 reduction in these cohorts. GATA6-AS1 silencing resulted in induction of TGM2, and this was coupled with a reduction in mitochondrial membrane potential and mitochondrial respiration, as well as in a reduction of metabolites linked to aerobic respiration relevant to mucosal inflammation. TGM2 knockdown in GATA6-AS1-deficient cells rescued mitochondrial respiration. CONCLUSIONS: GATA6-AS1 levels are reduced in UC, CD and coeliac disease, and in more severe UC forms. We highlight GATA6-AS1 as a target regulating epithelial mitochondrial functions, potentially through controlling TGM2 levels.